UNEVEN · Hotter for Some · Berlin

Berlin's Hottest Nights

Where the city barely cools down on summer nights, who lives there and how many older people are affected. Each column is one of Berlin's 542 planning areas, shown on the 2024 aerial image. Drag to pan; right-click or use two fingers to tilt and rotate.

Column height
Colour
Aerial image

What the map shows

68

planning areas are in the top quarter for both night temperature and old-age poverty. That is twice as many as chance would predict.

64,800

people aged 65 and over live in these 68 areas, including about 15,400 over 80. An estimated 11,000 of them receive basic old-age income support (Grundsicherung im Alter).

145,500

people aged 65 and over live where nights are among the hottest quarter of the city. That is one in five older people in Berlin.

19.3 °C

is the climate model's 4 a.m. temperature in Huttenkiez (Moabit), the warmest planning area. In Nikolassee it is 17.3 °C.

How to read the link

Across all planning areas, hot nights and old-age poverty are clearly linked (rank correlation ρ = 0.66). That does not mean one causes the other. Both follow the same pattern of the city, and only once that pattern is taken out can you see what is left.

  1. 1

    Both cluster in the inner city

    Dense, sealed neighbourhoods release at night the heat they store during the day. At the same time, old-age income support is especially common in Moabit, Wedding, Kreuzberg and Neukölln. Controlling for distance to the centre lowers ρ from 0.66 to 0.41.

  2. 2

    The inner city is hot everywhere

    Within 5 km of the centre the link disappears (ρ = −0.05). Nights here are warm no matter how well-off a neighbourhood is.

  3. 3

    On the outskirts, building type decides

    Further out the link stays strong (ρ ≈ 0.6). The likely explanation: large housing estates and dense tenement blocks with low pensions sit next to leafy areas of villas and detached houses. The double-burden areas are noticeably less green on average (NDVI 0.37 versus 0.49). People with small pensions tend to live where it is dense and has little green.

  4. 4

    Fewer older people, but poorer ones

    In the hottest neighbourhoods the share of people over 65 is actually lower (12 % versus 20 % in the rest of the city, ρ = −0.62). But the older people who do live there are especially often poor. That is why the absolute numbers matter: set the column height to “People 65+”.

Rank correlation between night temperature and old-age poverty: overall 0.66; controlling for distance 0.41; inner city up to 5 km −0.05; 5 to 10 km 0.57; beyond 10 km 0.59. −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 All of Berlin Controlling for distance Inner city (0–5 km) Ring 5–10 km Outskirts (over 10 km) 0.66 0.41 −0.05 0.57 0.59
Spearman rank correlation between 4 a.m. air temperature and old-age poverty, 536 assessed planning areas.
Limits of the analysis
  • Area data describe neighbourhoods, not individual people.
  • Neighbouring areas resemble each other, which makes links look statistically more certain than they are.
  • Night values come from a climate model of a calm summer night. Counted tropical nights exist only for weather stations.
  • Social data date from 31 Dec 2022, age data from 31 Dec 2024. The number of older people on income support is an estimate (share × people 65+).